Day: September 5, 2024

President Trump says he will send Vice President Kamala Harris a MAGA cap #Shorts #OAN

President Donald Trump jokes he will send Vice President Kamala Harris a MAGA cap after stating she copied his “no tax on tips” policy.

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He Predicted Trump in 2016, Biden in 2020 and Now… | NYT Opinion

Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are scheduled to debate on Sept. 10, but the 2024 presidential election is already in the bag — at least according to Allan Lichtman, the American University historian who’s been dubbed the Nostradamus of presidential election predictions for his near-perfect 40-year track record.

Mr. Lichtman was among the few to accurately predict Mr. Trump’s victory in 2016 (earning him a Sharpie-scribbled note from the candidate lauding the “GOOD CALL!”). Immediately after the first 2024 presidential debate, between Mr. Trump and President Biden, Mr. Lichtman was also quick to warn that Mr. Biden dropping out of the race could be a “tragic mistake for Democrats,” leading him directly into an online battle with the forecaster Nate Silver. The confidence is rooted in Mr. Lichtman’s simple, history-driven model, which tunes out polls and pollsters and instead focuses on 13 true-or-false questions that he says hold the “keys” to the White House.

So can a model that looks all the way back to the horse and buggy days survive in an unprecedented election year marked by criminal proceedings, an assassination attempt and that Democratic switcheroo? Mr. Lichtman is confident that it can.

And what is his prediction in this unpredictable year? Well, for that, you’ll have to watch the video.

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Que Mala’s Campaign Is Freaking Out As Trump’s Surging With No End In Sight

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🔴Trump’s Chances of Winning in November Surge, Says Nate Silver’s Forecast

Former President Donald Trump’s chances of victory in the upcoming election have reached their highest point in over a month, according to Nate Silver’s latest forecast. Despite Vice President Kamala Harris consistently leading in polls since entering the 2024 race, Silver’s model now gives Trump a 58.2% chance of securing the 270 electoral votes required to win, as of Wednesday. In comparison, Harris is given a 41.6% chance of winning in November, per the latest Silver Bulletin update.

Nate Silver, founder of FiveThirtyEight and a renowned statistician, cautioned that the race remains tight, describing it as still within “toss-up” territory. He noted that many recent polls have shown Harris underperforming against earlier expectations. While Harris leads Trump by 3.4 percentage points in national polls, Silver emphasized, “stranger things have happened than a candidate who was behind in the polls winning.”

Silver’s model saw Harris with a stronger chance of winning between August 4 and 27, but Trump’s numbers have steadily improved. Just last week, the forecast had them nearly tied, with Harris at 50.5% and Trump at 49.2%. This recent surge gives Trump his best odds since the model launched on July 30, when his chances peaked at 61.3%.

The forecast also suggests that while Harris has a higher likelihood of winning the popular vote (58.9% to Trump’s 41.1%), Trump could once again secure critical battleground states, including Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and North Carolina. Michigan remains a toss-up, while Wisconsin slightly favors Harris.

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