It’s happening. Pollster Nate Silver warned Monday that President Biden’s approval ratings have plummeted to a new low, suggesting it may be time for the president to reconsider his re-election bid in November 2024.
“Biden just hit a new all-time low in approval (37.4%),” the data analyst and founder of FiveThirtyEight wrote on X, referencing his organization’s latest average of the president’s job approval numbers.
Silver acknowledged that while dropping out would be a significant risk, continuing to run with such low approval ratings could pose an even greater risk. “Are we there yet? I don’t know,” the polling expert conceded. “But it’s more than fair to ask.”
Despite these concerns, Biden, 81, has not indicated any plans to end his re-election bid, despite the poor polling numbers. Silver has long expressed doubts about the incumbent’s ability to beat former President Donald Trump in the upcoming election.
In February, Silver caused a stir by suggesting there might be Democrats better equipped to take on the 77-year-old former president. Last month, he reiterated his stance, advising Biden to consider stepping aside.
“What’s clearer [in my opinion] is that Democrats would have been better served if Biden had decided a year ago not to seek a second term, which would have allowed them to have some semblance of a primary process and give voters a say among the many popular Democrats across the country,” Silver said.
Silver noted that Biden is in “MUCH worse shape,” in terms of polling, than he was in 2020. At that time, Biden held leads in key swing states such as Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Recent surveys now show Trump ahead of Biden in all of those states.
Silver attributed Biden’s lackluster support to concerns about his age, calling it an “extremely understandable concern” for voters. “Biden’s age is something voters are overwhelmingly consistent about mentioning in polls,” he said, adding that the side-by-side video comparisons of Biden now versus a decade ago are “extremely revealing.”
In Silver’s view, Trump should also consider stepping out of the race. “Biden would lose by 7 points,” Silver said, referring to a scenario where the presumptive Republican nominee is not the party’s candidate for president.
Despite the mounting concerns and poor polling figures, President Biden has given no indication that he plans to step aside before his anticipated rematch with Trump.
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